ABSTRACT
Ninety-six million people are symptomatically infected with Dengue globally every year. Under the current standard-of-care, up to 20% of Dengue patients may be hospitalized, while only 500,000 develop Dengue Haemorrhagic Fever (DHF) and require hospitalization. This leads to unnecessary overwhelming of hospitals in tropical countries during large Dengue epidemics, especially when healthcare systems are grappling with large numbers of COVID-19 patients. Our research team set out to discover biomarkers to prognosticate Dengue patients, and augment the infectious disease clinician's decision-making process to hospitalize Dengue patients. Host biomarkers with concentrations significantly different between pooled serum samples of Dengue Fever (DF) patients and DHF patients were identified using protein array. The prognostication capabilities of selected biomarkers were then validated over 283 adult Dengue patients recruited from three Singapore tertiary hospitals, prior to the diagnosis of DHF. Three biomarkers (A2M, CMA1 and VEGFA) were identified that provide independent prognostication value from one another, and from clinical parameters commonly monitored in Dengue patients. The combination of all three biomarkers was able to identify from as early as Day 1 after the onset of fever, DF patients whose conditions will deteriorate into DHF. The biomarkers are robust and able to predict DHF well when trained on different AI/ML algorithms (logistic regression, support vector machine, decision tree, random forest, AdaBoost and gradient boosting). When stacked, prediction models based on the biomarkers were able to predict DHF with 97.3% sensitivity, 92.7% specificity, 66.7% PPV, 99.6% NPV and an AUC of 0.978. To the best of our knowledge, our panel of three biomarkers offers the highest accuracy in prognosticating Dengue to date. Further studies are required to validate the biomarkers in different geographical settings and pilot their implementation as part of the standard-of-care workflow for Dengue patients. [ FROM AUTHOR] Copyright of International Journal of Infectious Diseases is the property of Elsevier B.V. and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full . (Copyright applies to all s.)
ABSTRACT
Background. Ageing population is a major health care problem all over the world. In Singapore, as of 2020, senior citizen (65 years and above) consists of 15.2 % of total population. By 2030, one in five Singaporeans will be more than 65 years old. Thus, nursing home (NH) is an important pillar of a health care system. Nursing home staff are in the front line to manage common infections. However, the inexperience and the lack of guidance have led to inappropriate transfer to acute hospitals. Infectious Diseases Community Program (IDCP) is the project to enhance partnerships with NHs. We work with NHs to develop, adapt, and implement appropriate processes related to infection control, prevention, and management. One of our objectives is the enhancement of assessment and appropriate evaluation of fever. The aim is to reduce the inappropriate admissions to acute hospitals. Methods. Fever and desaturation pathway (figure 1) was developed by IDCP team. Six participating NHs adopted the pathway and trained their staff. The study was approved by NHG domain specific review board (DSRB). Hospital records were reviewed. We compared the rate of inappropriate admission from 2015-2017 which serve as a baseline and 2019-2020. The wash-out period was 2018 when NHs were implementing the pathway. Inappropriate admission is defined as < ! 1. Admission is against advanced care planning / preferred plan of care or 2. Criteria in the pathway are not met on admission, 48 hours later and no other medical reason for admission. Figure 1 Results. Total number of fever transfers was 950 in 2015-2017 and 688 in 2019-2020. Number of inappropriate admissions was 115 in 2015-2017 and 50 in 2019-2020. Inappropriate admission was 12.11% in 2015-2017 and 7.27 % in 2019-2020 (table 1). Figure 2 shows the rate of inappropriate admissions of six participating NHs from 2015-2020. There is a decreasing trend after the pathway has been implemented in 2018. Conclusion. Adopting fever and desaturation pathway has reduced the rate of inappropriate admission in six participating NHs in Singapore. However, there is an increasing trend in inappropriate admission in 2020. This could be due to the lack of isolation facility in the NHs during the COVID-19 pandemic. We are continuing the implementation of the pathway to the rest of the NHs in the western region of Singapore.